Anthropic is having a moment in the private markets; SpaceX could spoil the party
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Nearly a thousand technology companies are currently trading on the secondary market, yet global investors' attention is focused almost exclusively on three giants: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. As noted by Glen Anderson, CEO of investment bank Rainmaker Securities, the private equity sector is currently undergoing one of the most exciting moments in its history. Although Anthropic is experiencing its golden age, attracting capital due to the growing demand for safe AI models, its dominance may be overshadowed by upcoming moves from SpaceX. For users and creators of creative technologies, this battle for capital on the secondary market has tangible significance—it determines the pace at which innovative generative tools enter widespread use. The rivalry between Anthropic and OpenAI forces both companies to constantly raise the bar regarding the performance of LLM models, which directly translates into the quality of daily work with AI. At the same time, the immense interest in SpaceX shows that investors are seeking diversification beyond software alone, which could impact the financial liquidity of the entire deep tech sector. The current market situation proves that the future of global technological infrastructure is now being decided by a narrow group of leaders whose valuations shape the sentiment of the entire innovation industry.
The secondary market for private company shares is currently undergoing a tectonic shift, and the dynamics we are observing are unlike anything from the last decade. Glen Anderson, CEO of the investment bank Rainmaker Securities, which has been matching buyers and sellers in this specific market since 2010, points to unprecedented activity. While a dozen years ago the number of institutional players interested in late-stage financing could be counted on two hands, today thousands of entities are participating in the game. At the center of this financial cyclone are three powerhouses: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, each playing a completely different role in shaping investor portfolios.
The new leader of the AI gold rush
It is not OpenAI, but Anthropic that is currently the "hottest commodity" on the secondary market. Investors who missed out on the early funding rounds of the ChatGPT creators are now flocking to direct their capital toward the company founded by the Amodei siblings. Rainmaker Securities, which handles transactions for approximately 1,000 different stocks, notes that Anthropic is currently generating the most interest and the highest volume of inquiries. This is a classic example of capital rotation within the artificial intelligence sector – investors are looking for an alternative to the leader that still possesses greater potential for valuation growth before a possible stock market debut.
Analyzing this trend, it can be seen that Anthropic benefits from its image as a "safer" and more ethical alternative in the world of generative AI. Their Claude model is gaining recognition not only for its technical capabilities but also for its Constitutional AI approach, which attracts conservative institutional capital. In the face of market saturation with OpenAI shares, it is Anthropic shares that have become the currency hardest to find on private exchanges, which automatically boosts their attractiveness in the eyes of brokers like Anderson.
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OpenAI is losing ground
A surprising turn of events is the fact that OpenAI – despite being synonymous with the AI revolution – is starting to lose its dominant position on the secondary market. According to observations by Rainmaker Securities, interest in Sam Altman's company shares is slowing down. The reason may be the massive supply of shares from early employees and investors who are choosing to realize profits. When too many shares appear on the market, natural demand pressure decreases, and the premium for the "uniqueness" of the asset evaporates. This saturation phenomenon makes OpenAI a mature, almost "defensive" asset in the AI category, which paradoxically discourages speculative capital seeking rapid jumps in value.
Additionally, OpenAI's complicated corporate structure and ambiguities regarding future funding rounds are causing some institutional players to hold off on purchases. In the world of creative technologies and LLM models, where each subsequent iteration of GPT must prove its superiority over the competition, investors are beginning to diversify their portfolios. OpenAI is no longer the only choice for someone who wants exposure to artificial intelligence, and the data from Rainmaker Securities is hard evidence of this.
The shadow of SpaceX and the upcoming IPO
However, the figure of Elon Musk and his space empire hangs over the entire technology market. SpaceX is cited by Anderson as the third key actor that could "spoil the fun" for companies in the AI sector. The reason is simple: an approaching initial public offering (IPO) or subsequent giant funding rounds that could suck liquidity out of the market. If SpaceX decides to go public, a huge portion of the capital currently circulating around Anthropic or OpenAI could be redirected toward space and satellite technologies, which offer more tangible assets and infrastructure.
- Anthropic: Current demand leader, perceived as the freshest investment opportunity in the AI sector.
- OpenAI: Valuation stabilization and market saturation, decline in transaction dynamics on the secondary market.
- SpaceX: Potential "game changer," whose moves toward the stock market could redefine global investor priorities.
- Liquidity: Thousands of new institutional investors are turning the private market into an environment almost as dynamic as public stock exchanges.
The situation the secondary market finds itself in today is a litmus test for the entire tech industry. Glen Anderson rightly notes that we are dealing with a "nail-biting" moment – waiting for the giants' next move. The era where it was enough to be an "AI company" to attract capital is ending. Now, what matters is share availability, ownership structure, and how a given entity positions itself relative to the upcoming market debuts of colossi like SpaceX. Investors are becoming more selective, and Anthropic is skillfully using this weather window before the market's attention shifts from algorithms to rockets.
Anthropic's dominance on the secondary market is not a given forever. Rather, it is a signal that the private market has matured to seek alternatives and no longer uncritically accepts the primacy of a single player. In the coming months, a key indicator will be whether OpenAI can regain momentum in the eyes of Rainmaker Securities brokers, or if capital will ultimately "flow away" toward the stars with the subsequent successes of SpaceX. One thing is certain: liquidity in private markets is higher today than ever before, making the current phase of technological development exceptionally unpredictable for existing valuation leaders.
